Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump lost voter share in Warren and Essex Counties between 2016 and 2020, despite vocal advocacy after the 2016 election from local U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-Schuylerville.
The weight of U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik’s support of Donald Trump in the region is difficult to gauge.
But it is clear that her support of Trump after the 2016 election has not hampered her continued success at the ballot box.
There is a segment of voters that have been willing to pull Stefanik’s lever, but not Trump’s, based on an analysis of election returns.
Warren County Democratic Chairwoman Lynne Boecher said Matt Castelli, Stefanik’s Democratic challenger in 2022, fared essentially no better than Tedra Cobb in 2020, even though Castelli was seemingly a stronger candidate than Cobb.
Boecher attributes this to the large segment of senior citizens in the two counties, who typically vote a straight party line, but may have made an exception and voted against Trump.
“The 55 and older stuck with Stefanik,” she said. “The younger voters don’t vote, and the older voters who vote are the very old – and they vote party line.”
Warren County Republican Chairman Timothy McNulty said it is Stefanik’s popularity locally that made the difference.
“She’s popular here. … Persuasive, very intelligent,” he said.
In Warren County, Trump received 50.1% percent of the vote in 2016, while Stefanik received 58.2% of the vote.
Stefanik, R-Schuylerville, received 2,129 more votes than Trump, the Republican, who carried Warren County and defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton for President.
In 2020, when Trump lost re-election, he received 48.63% of the vote in Warren County, while Stefanik received 53.2%.
Stefanik received 1,664 more votes than Trump in 2020.
In Essex County, Trump received 47.2% of the vote in 2016, while Stefanik received 56.1% of the vote.
Stefanik received 1,328 more votes than Trump in Essex County in 2016.
In 2020, Trump received 46.1% of the vote in Essex County while Stefanik received 50.5%.
Stefanik received 874 more votes than Trump, in the county.
Stefanik mostly distanced herself from Trump during the 2016 campaign, but has been a key supporter since then, and is frequently mentioned in the national media as a possible Trump running mate this year.
The 2022 election results indicate a strengthening of Republican dominance across the ticket in Warren and Essex Counties.
Some attribute this to increasing support of Trump locally, others to the strength of the GOP state ticket, and still others to the general mood of the country.
“It was Zeldin’s popularity,” said McNulty, the Warren County GOP chairman.
Some have suggested that local dissatisfaction with Gov. Kathy Hochul over bail reform and other issues may also have been a factor.
In Warren County, Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin received 55.47% of the vote in 2022, nearly 7-percentage points higher than Trump’s share in 2020.
Stefanik received 52.4% of the vote.
In Essex County, Zeldin received 54% percent of the vote in 2022, nearly 8-percentage-points higher than Trump’s share in 2020.
Stefanik received 47.9% of the vote in Essex County, one of only two counties in the 21st District that she did not carry.
The other was Clinton County.
U.S. Sen. Majority Leader Charles Schumer, who in past elections has boasted of carrying every county in the state except for Hamilton County, did not carry Warren or Essex counties, and most other upstate counties, in 2022.
Little-known GOP challenger Joe Pinion carried both counties, but lost statewide.
Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist in New York City, said Pinion’s success upstate was clearly a reflection of increased support for Trump.
“Donald Trump is on one side of the issues, and Schumer is on the other. It’s simply Trump vs anti-Trump,” he said.
Boecher, the Warren County Democratic chairwoman, said the 2022 elections reflect the national mood that has stymied constructive dialogue.
“I just think that we’ve become so polarized. Any sense of civilized debate has been lost,” she said.
In Warren County Schumer received 47.5% of the vote in 2022, a drop from 58.2% in 2016.
In Essex County, Schumer received 49.2% of the vote in 2022, down from 55.3% in 2016.
Voter enrollment statistics show an increase in the influence of non-affiliated, often called independent, voters.
The share of non-affiliated voters has increased in both counties, with active non-affiliated enrollment increasing by 2,911 in Warren County and 1,091 voters in Essex County, between Non. 1, 2016 and Feb. 27, 2024, the most recent statistics available from the state Board of Elections.
The Republican share of voters decreased in both counties, although the total number of active enrolled Republicans increased in both counties.
Total active enrollment increased by 5,478 voters in Warren County and 1,283 voters in Essex County.
In Warren County, non-affiliated voters accounted for 22% of active enrollment in 2016, and 24.5% in 2024.
Republican voters accounted for 45.34% of active enrollment in 2016 and 41.43% in 2024.
Democratic voters accounted for 25.13% of active enrollment in 2016 and 27.12% in 2024.
In Essex County, non-affiliated voters accounted for 18.9% of active enrollment in 2016, and 22% in 2024.
Republican voters accounted for 44.98% of active enrollment in 2016 and 41.26% in 2024.
Democratic voters accounted for 27.12% of the enrollment in 2016, and 29.57% in 2024.
